These Events Will Shape Crypto Market Sentiment This Week
As the US election date approaches, various macroeconomic events are stirring volatility across the crypto market.
The crypto market is poised for a volatile week with imminent high-profile economic events. Bitcoin has been consolidating above $67,000. However, some probable catalysts from various macroeconomic reports and the closeness to the US election may give the crypto space its next big wind of change.
Key US Economic Data Driving Crypto This Week
Below are some key events that will influence the cryptocurrency market this week.
Q3 Gross Domestic Product
The Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau will release Q3 Gross Domestic Product on Wednesday, October 30. It is forecasted at a median of 3.2%, slightly higher than Q2, which was 3.0%.
According to the Atlanta Fed model, the annualized rate could be as high as 3.3%. That would more than double the median forecast from July, a signal that economic performance is proving stronger than expected.
However, if the GDP drops below the forecasted figures, many investors could seek cryptocurrencies as an alternative investment class.
Nonfarm Payrolls
The US Department of Labor will release Nonfarm payroll data on Friday, November 1. This data measures the change in the number of employed people excluding specific sectors from month to month.
Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which stripped payrolls of around 40,000 jobs, would cause a decline in October’s payroll growth. Nevertheless, economists expect a gain of 125,000 jobs for October, compared with an increase of 254,000 in September, while the jobless rate should steady at 4.1%.
Mega-Cap Earnings
There would also be a release of quarterly earnings reports from major technology companies- events that often have significant ramifications on the crypto market. These tech companies include October 29 (Tuesday): Alphabet GOOGL; October 30 (Wednesday): Microsoft MSFT; Meta META, and October 31 (Thursday): Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL)
Other earning reports from notable firms this week include Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Merck (MRK), AMD, and Intel (INTC).
US Election
With over a week remaining, according to prediction markets such as Polymarket, Republican nominee Donald Trump’s winning odds stand at 66%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holds a 34.1% probability.
Political changes in the US have increasingly influenced the crypto sector, with investment in digital assets turning into a political issue and a large base of digital asset voters involving themselves in American politics.
Trump’s Win Impact on the Crypto Market
It’s worth noting that prediction platforms such as The Economist, Silver Bulletin, and RealClearPolitics give Trump a hedge over his closest challenger (Kamala Harris) with odds of 53.3%, 59.2%, and 61.3%, respectively. In addition, the online poll from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket showed that Trump has a 66.1%-win odd, while Harris has 33.9%.
According to Polymarket, Trump will sweep all six so-called “swing” states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This is in contrast to the 2016 and 2020 presidential races when major platforms were incorrect in underestimating Trump’s potential success.
This time, voter sentiment shows a more definitive trend, with the success signals in his favor.
Trump-Related Stocks, Tokens and Crypto Market Trends
In October alone, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged from $16.16 to $38.95, representing a 141.02% increase. Also, Trump-themed meme coins have performed well, with MAGA, one of the most popular ones, gaining 29.32% over the past thirty days.
Similarly, MAGA: Fight for Trump (TRUMPCOIN) is up 100.5% in the last thirty days. Among the top ten coins, only Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Tron noted gains of 5.1%, 19.5%, and 6%, respectively, in the last month.
In addition, only Dogecoin, Dogwifhat, Popcat, and Cat in Dog’s World (MEW) have reported growth among the memecoins. Furthermore, altcoin dominance fell from 10.27% at the start of the month to 9.26%, indicating a drop of 10.9%.
Many analysts predict that a win for the Republican presidential candidate would influence the crypto market positively as he has promised to implement crypto-friendly policies.
