So last 10 days had also turned the world upside down. Russia’s unforeseen airstrike on Ukraine, and, quite pertinently, the most unforeseen launch of a massive invasion as compared to preconceptions of an airstrike in only Ukraine’s eastern provinces, will deeply alter geopolitics.
This traces the start of a new time of emergence, the substantially high spending for defense, and the reconfiguration of worldwide new alliances, as well as the rise of the new global order where so many assumptions of the previous decades would be challenged.
Regardless of the scheduling and conditions of a future cease-fire, it is clear that now the Russian military can not indeed end up leaving Ukraine again for the rest of this century. Russia ended up going to Afghanistan in the year 1979 expecting it to be a 6-month plan, but it ended up taking them 10 years and leavingthem with a broken nose.
Russia could not indeed survive this war and conflict for long so because the cost of these Special Military Activities, as Russia relates to them, is 1$ billion a day could not be maintained for more than a few months. They can’t even handle Ukraine if they obtain military supremacy as they’d need at least five million people to do so, which they will not have.
A Financial Total disaster
Besides the Russian military roadblock, the scale and nature of the financial penalties placed on Russia had also taken everybody by shock. Are the heaviest sanctions the globe has seen since, far outperforming.
Because of the financial sanctions, the Russian Banking System is unable to access 50% of its export earnings ($640 billion), limiting its capacity to safeguard the country.
Major economies are intent on bringing Russia’s economy to collapse and severely damage its offensive capability. If the West imposes an economic blockade on Russia’s energy cooperation, it may be the death knell, but it will finally come at a serious expense to the global economy, most likely an economic crisis.
Russia’s energy sector accounts for 15% of GDP and 33% of government income. Any destructive potential in Russian oil production (10 million barrels per day) might result in an increase in the price of oil.